Quick take:
- Despite a rough few days, Bitcoin is still in profits for Q3 2020
- July 1st found Bitcoin trading at roughly $9,100
- BTC is currently trading above the $10,300 support level
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has gone below the $10,000 psychological price on two occasions. The first time was before yesterday’s daily close when BTC briefly traded at $9,950 – Binance rate. The second time was today around 10:50 am NYC time when Bitcoin fell to as low as $9,890. This means that Bitcoin has partially filled the CME gap created in July that went as low as $9,700. What remains to be seen, is whether there will be a third attempt, in the near future, to fill it completely.
Bitcoin (BTC) is Still Up 14% in Q3 2020
Setting aside Bitcoin’s crash from $12k to $9,900 levels that happened this week, and looking at BTC’s performance in Q3, it can be observed that the King of Crypto is still up 14.725% for the quarter.
On July 1st, Bitcoin’s average price was $9,100. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $10,440. This means that anyone who bought Bitcoin in early July is still a happy investor.
Bitcoin’s profitability in the third quarter of 2020 was also captured by the team at Unfolded via the following tweet.
Q3 closing end of this month, historically with not the best peformance. pic.twitter.com/l2wZXikeyO
— Unfolded (@cryptounfolded) September 4, 2020
$10,218 is Bitcoin’s Lowest Value Forward
Also worth mentioning is that in an August 30th tweet, the team at Cane Island Alternative Investors estimated that $10,200 was Bitcoin’s lowest price forward.
#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/5om9Q8RAde
— Cane Island Digital (@CaneDigital) August 30, 2020
This value of $10,200 was attained by using Metcalfe’s law on the Bitcoin network. The process of calculating this value is summarized in the abstract section (below) of a paper written by Timothy Peterson that is available online.
Bitcoin is modeled as a token digital currency, a medium of exchange with no intrinsic value that is transacted within a defined electronic network. Per Metcalfe’s law, the value of a network is a function of the number of pairs transactions possible, and is proportional to n-squared.
A Gompertz curve is used to model the inflationary effects associated with the creation of new bitcoin. The result is a parsimonious model of supply (number of bitcoins) and demand (number of bitcoin wallets), with the conclusion bitcoin’s price fits Metcalfe’s law exceptionally well. Metcalfe’s law is used to investigate Gandal’s et.al. [2018] assertion of price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem during 2013-2014.