The chart shows that Bitcoin’s two historical phases (2013-2014 and 2015-2016) saw two very similar trajectories, this being the trajectory of parabolic run-up, a dramatic drawdown to enter a bear market, then a capitulation event that makes the market “depressed,” a strong run-up out of the bear market, a brief drawdown that makes many rethink the future of Bitcoin, then a parabolic rally.
This time around, Bitcoin is in the midst of the “brief drawdown that makes many rethink the future of it”; indeed, for once again there has been talk of capitulation among BTC miners and other industry members.
History repeating, though, suggests that BTC will soon resume its rally to set new all-time highs, which would mean that the cryptocurrency could begin to surpass $10,000, then $12,000, then $15,000, and so on and so forth in the coming months.
Complacency, Not Disbelief
While the consensus of analysts and sentiment analysis suggests that Bitcoin is in a disbelief phase, some have proposed that we’re actually in the “complacency” phase of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet: market cycle chart.
One such individual who has made such a proposition is James, a trader that been accurately calling the bearish price action over the past few weeks. He noted in the chart above that there’s a good chance that Bitcoin is in the midst of a complacency phase, which acts as a pseudo-double top in a market cycle.
Should this be true, a massive capitulation event, which could easily bring BTC and other cryptocurrencies to levels dramatically below the December 2018 bottom, could take place, the “cheat sheet” chart largely implies.
And as crazy as this sounds, this theory has gained some attention, though mostly from staunch bears and haters of Bitcoin. For instance, as reported by Ethereum World News earlier, hedge fund manager Mark Dow, who shorted BTC at $20,000 in late-2017/early-2018, said that he thinks that the “thesis of an echo-bubble unwind, with occasional upside spasms & progressively weaker FOMO, just got a lot stronger.”