Bitcoin has retreated back below five figures for the fifth
time since it peaked in late June. At the moment it is still range bound but
many traders fear further losses. One analyst believes that we are still
nowhere near the top of the current bubble.
Bitcoin Facing Further Losses
In a fall back to last Thursday’s levels, BTC hit $9,800 a
few hours ago before attempting a recovery
back to $10k. The August downtrend appears to be strengthening as death
crosses are appearing on most time frames. This bearish trend indicator happens
when a shorter term moving average, usually a 50, crosses a longer term one,
usually a 200.
In the short term BTC could revisit $9,500 again by the
weekend. This has served as solid support in previous dips so there could be
buyers lurking here. Even further losses to $9k or below would not be that bad
in the grand scheme of things.
Senior Quantitative Researcher at Ikigai Fund going by the
twitter handle ‘Hans Hodl’ has observed a different chart which identifies
Bitcoin bubble peaks by using adjusted binary BTC days destroyed.
“Bitcoin bubble tops are clearly identified with a dark red cluster of Adjusted Binary BDD. Until that happens, we’re not at the top. Public opinion is key here because that red cluster is caused by the assumption of the crowd and is self-fulfilling (reflexivity).”
The mass FOMO and hysteria witnessed in late 2017 has yet to
occur during the current market cycle which suggests we are nowhere near the
peak yet. He added that there has been quite a bit of accumulation and that the
current dips are caused by short term profit taking which is to be expected in
He also stated that the current level of Reserve Risk is equivalent to where we were in the early part of 2017, before the massive bull run in the latter half of the year. Noting the fear and greed index Hans added;
“In addition to all this, Crypto Fear & Greed is printing all-time lows (extreme fear). That’s the exact thing you should be looking for if you’re buying the dip for the long-term.”
It is clear from the market action over the past six weeks
that people have been buying the dip, which is every time Bitcoin drops below
$10k. It does not remain there long and the market
chop continues with a return to five figures.
There may not be another return to $6k so anything around $9k
would be a good entry point for longer term gains. It appears that the current
market cycle still has a long way to go.