The Bitcoin halving in 2020 was predicted by most as being the catalyst that will send BTC to the Moon.
The Coronavirus pandemic changed the global financial situation causing a stock and crypto market crash in mid-March.
Today’s stock markets are in the red due to confirmations of a second wave of COVID19.
Bitcoin’s probability of hitting a new all-time-high in 2020 has dropped to 5%.
At the beginning of 2020, the mood and atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin was rather bullish due to the halving event that took place in May of this year. However, many BTC investors and traders had not anticipated the emergence of a global pandemic on the horizon in the name of the Coronavirus. The quick global spread of COVID19 resulted in the quick crash of Bitcoin in mid-March thus hampered any potential massive gains of BTC leading up to the halving event.
The Probability of Bitcoin Hitting a New All-Time-High in 2020 Has Dropped to 5%
Furthermore, the spread of the Coronavirus has entered a second phase with global confirmed cases almost hitting the 10 million mark with a bulk of new infections in Brazil and the US. The latter country now has 2.47 million confirmed cases of COVID19 and several states such as Texas, are pausing reopening plans in a bid to halt the spread of the disease.
These recent developments regarding the spread of COVID have resulted in the US stock markets experiencing significant losses today, June 26th. Consequently, Bitcoin is also in the red with BTC struggling to maintain and hold the $9,000 support zone as the asset has continued to be highly correlated to the S&P 500.
It is with this background that the probability of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time-high in 2020 has drastically reduced. Data from the team at Skew.com indicates that the chances of Bitcoin pushing up and overshadowing its 2017 performance, now stand at 5%. Below is a chart from Skew that provides a graphic representation of this information.
Like I’ve been saying for months now, I have no reason to walk away from my prediction early in the year that Bitcoin is going to get stuck between $6,000 and $10,000 for the majority of this year
Additionally, the team at Pantera Capital has also predicted that Bitcoin’s dominance will start to drop as we inch closer to 2021. It can, therefore, be concluded that Bitcoin has entered bear territory with adequate support around the $8,100 range as this coincides with the support level of the 200-day moving average.