Due to the fact that it is an illiquid asset, Bitcoin’s day-to-day price movements are unpredictable. Just think back to late-October of last year, when the price of the leading cryptocurrency suddenly surged by 42 percent in a day’s time, or earlier this week, when BTC tanked below $7,000 to only see a surprise recovery to $7,300 hours later.
Despite this, multiple analyses and data sets have shown that Bitcoin’s price is somewhat predictable, at least from a longer-term perspective. And one set of historical data suggests that BTC will not have a positive start to 2020.
Bitcoin Could Trend Lower in January
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst and trader Ceteris Paribus recently noted on Twitter that per his historical analysis of Bitcoin’s price trends, January has been the “worst month for BTC performance” in the asset’s history thus far.
Indeed, as his chart below shows, BTC has historically traded the worst in January, posting an average loss of 12% each January since May 2013, when the cryptocurrency became somewhat liquid and a respectable asset from an investment standpoint.
January is historically the worst month for $BTC performance.
November and December are historically two of the best, but we know how 2019 ended.
Bitcoin closing the month down by the 12% average figure will imply a price of $6,300. Ouch.
This data observation comes shortly after a number of analysts argued that Bitcoin is prime to return to the $5,000s prior to starting a bull run.
Per previous reports from Ethereum World News, former Wall Street analyst Tone Vays remarked that he still expects for BTC to see the “next low to come in [during] the first quarter of 2020.” As to where this low in the cryptocurrency market will come in, the long-time cryptocurrency trader looked to the $5,000s, claiming that there’s a high probability Bitcoin will enter that range to put in a fresh low.
This has been echoed by CryptoBirb, who recently argued that Bitcoin still has the potential to see one final dump to $5,400-$5,600 — 25% lower than the current price of $7,350. The reason why this level is being targeted, it coincides with the long-term 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement level.
Do Bulls Have Any Hope?
The question then remains: do bulls have any hope?
According to some, for sure.
Su Zhu, the chief executive officer of forex and crypto fund Three Arrows Capital, recently argued on Twitter that he believes Bitcoin’s price outlooking heading into 2020 is looking rather bullish. The prominent commentator specifically cited his analysis of the BTC/USDT trading pairs and their premiums to BTC/USD markets and the overall price action, which shows there are “clear signs of accumulation and money flow back into risk.”
Also, a number of traders have suggested that Bitcoin is currently trading in the midst of a key bullish Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. Should BTC complete the pattern that has been panning out for months now, the cryptocurrency could finish this month at $9,000, maybe more.