Bitcoin Cools Off; Some Admit Bull Run Could Have Ended
In June, emotions flared in the cryptocurrency community as Bitcoin (BTC) went parabolic for the umpteenth time in its history. But by the end of the month, after the asset blasted to $14,000 in a jaw-dropping turn of events, BTC had started to cool, finally showing some weakness after a near-vertical price surge.
This lull has continued all the way into September, with Bitcoin now trading at $10,300 — nearly 30% below the year-to-date peak — which has only been underscored by the fact that cryptocurrency market volumes are now at levels not seen since April of May — back when BTC was trading well under five figures.
While many have chalked up the slowing market to “reaccumulation” before the “real bull run”, some have been left doubting. “What if Bitcoin really topped in June?” is actually a thought that has crossed the mind of this writer.
According to a recent Twitter poll conducted by popular Twitter analyst Cantering Clark, this writer isn’t alone. In fact, when he asked his followers if they believe “it is possible that we have topped and that this is not a bull market”, 62% of the effectively 1,000 respondents said “yes”.
While the “yes” answer was vague, some explained their thoughts in the comments below, remarking that “anything is possible” at the end of the day, in spite of all the bullish technical indicators and fundamental trends that may support a further appreciation in the Bitcoin price.
Indeed. When nobody thought that Bitcoin could go any lower in summer of 2018, the cryptocurrency did, plunging from $6,000 to $3,000 in an event that some claimed was the marking of the end of the industry. And, despite the countless news outlets, Wall Streeters, and institutions saying that Bitcoin would fail over the past decade, it has outpaced every other asset in existence.
Anything truly is possible with such a revolutionary asset like BTC.
Bull Market Territory
While the majority seems to acknowledge the potential — as fleeting as it may be — that Bitcoin may have topped out extremely early this time around, historical indicators show that BTC is deep in the bull market territory, not on the precipice of returning back to a “crypto winter” as some cynics have suggested.
For those not versed in technical analysis, a so-called golden cross is when a short-term moving average moves above a long-term one, implying that bulls are in control of the price of a given asset.
The one that BTC’s three-day chart saw was the cross of the 50 moving average above the 200 moving average. What’s notable about this is the last time this technical event played out was early-2016, February 2016.
What came after that is historic: the rally from $500 to $20,000 — a jaw-dropping 4,000% move — in under 24 months, of course. Should history repeat from here, Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by mid-2021.