Over the past week, Bitcoin has found itself flatlining, establishing a tight range in the low-$7,000s as volume tapers off.
While this consolidation has neither been bullish or bearish, some have started to say that the fact that BTC held the mid-$6,000s, which were a key support region during the 2018 bear market, has been establishing a bottom.
In fact, Willy Woo, a partner at Adaptive Capital, wrote that on-chain momentum, which the popular analyst has long claimed is correlated with Bitcoin’s macro price trends, is “crossing into bullish” territory after a multi-month downturn.
With this in mind, he asserted that the “bottom is most likely in,” meaning that any move lower than the $6,500 plunge “will be just a wick in the macro view.”
Bitcoin Bottom Far From In
Jonny Moe, another popular analyst, recently wrote on Twitter that Bitcoin is forming a “chop bottom,” remarking that “We could go a little lower, a little higher, it doesn’t matter.”
Despite this, a trader going by James has noted that BTC is showing no signs of bottoming, with the wickless chart showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, all indicative of a very strong downtrend, coupled with a bearish retest of the key resistance in the $10,000 range.
Calling bottoms with absolutely no bullish structure…. pic.twitter.com/BHxH6TwTAF
— James (@sometrader78) December 15, 2019
It isn’t only James that is noting that Bitcoin’s macro price chart is showing no signs of an abatement of the downturn.
Cold Blooded Shiller, a popular full-time trader, recently said that BTC remains in a “markdown from distribution” near the $13,000-$14,000 top, a markdown contained by a descending channel that has existed since the top of the recent bull run.
As it stands, Bitcoin at $7,100 is in the middle of the channel, seemingly in no man’s land, thus not close to a bottom:
“From a volume perspective, there is nothing to me that screams “THIS IS THE BOTTOM.” For both markdowns and markups we typically expect to see “climactic” volume,” Shiller wrote, trying to accentuate that there are no concrete signs the bottom is in for the Bitcoin market.
Shiller concluded that for him to acknowledge that a bottom is in, Bitcoin will have to rapidly move out of the abovementioned descending channel on a large influx of volume, implying a selling climax, to fall into support, bounce, then continue sideways in preparation for the next macro move.
There’s also Rampage, who remarked that Bitcoin is showing signs it is in the midst of a repeating cycle seen twice before in the history of BTC. The cycle is marked by a parabolic and rounded blow-off top, consolidation near said top, a strong drop to test a historical uptrend, a secondary top formed below the primary blow-off top, then a collapse under the aforementioned historical uptrend to enter a bear market phase.
$BTC dump cycle. pic.twitter.com/U7VgRSK1m9
— xCæsar (@PARABOLIT) December 14, 2019
This cycle suggests that Bitcoin is poised to break through the historical uptrend line at ~$5,000 to enter a potentially multi-year-long bear phase.
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