Bitcoin: $0 or $100,000?
Bitcoin has long toiled in obscurity. Despite the cryptocurrency now being valued at some $180 billion — the size of a large Silicon Valley firm — it is still relatively small in the grand schemes of things. Yes, it is one of the largest base monies in the world, but is still pitiful when put up against the size of, say, the equities or housing markets.
Some cynics have postulated that this is the biggest that the cryptocurrency will ever grow. Ever.
For instance, Larry Summers, the former Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank, said that gold, at $7 trillion, is around 1% of global wealth. And, cryptocurrency, he added, is approximately 5% of that. These proportions, he claims, are “just about right”.
Brilliant keynote by Larry Summers at the 75th Bretton Woods Anniversary Conference: "Gold is 1% of global wealth & all crypto is 5% the size of gold. So crypto is 0.05% of world wealth & that is just about right".
In my view that is 0.05% too much as crypto is worth less than 0 pic.twitter.com/PojcRBsSIU
— Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) July 23, 2019
Peter Brandt, however, sees Bitcoin’s success and future as more of a binary.
In a recent Youtube video, the prominent commodities trader said that Bitcoin has a 50% chance of succeeding and a 50% chance of failing — no in-betweens. He defines success as a rally to $50,000 to $100,000 — meaning that Bitcoin would be valued at around $1 trillion to $2 trillion; and failure as a move for BTC to become “basically worthless”, which he claims is a sub-$1,000 price point.
$100,000 or $0 — which one?
In this 25-minute video recorded in early Sept I provide my overview of Bitcoin. It provides my perspective on trading cryptos. https://t.co/9ejrWlDkcQ
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 21, 2019
While he believes that Bitcoin is more than a 50/50 binary than anything, Brandt has been leaning long over recent months, touting lofty predictions that were seemingly music to the ears of HODLers. As reported by Ethereum World News previously, the leading trader said that [there is a] “Possibility that $BTC has entered fourth parabolic phase,” Brandt noted while pointing to the chart seen below.
Possibility that $BTC has entered fourth parabolic phase https://t.co/q4nAgkVJff pic.twitter.com/PL2LQ4ANOY
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 1, 2019
This uptrend, he has claimed will bring BTC to $50,000 and beyond.
Interestingly, $50,000 isn’t as crazy as it may sound from an outsider’s perspective.
A price model from Twitter analyst PlanB, which has been accurate to a 95% R2, has shown that after the May 2020 halving, BTC’s fair market capitalization will swell to $1 trillion. This market capitalization translates to $50,000 per coin as aforementioned.
That’s not all. ByteTree’s Charlie Morris wrote in a note earlier this year that Bitcoin is currently trending above a trendline that has an internal rate of return of 115% per annum. Should this trend continue, the analyst remarked that Bitcoin could “touch a trillion dollars by 2025”.
Photo by Ivana Cajina on Unsplash